Six months into 2026, the US venture market has produced record-breaking headlines and exhibited persistent structural contradictions in equal measure. Our midyear update to the four outlooks we published in December examines both developments, tracking what has materialized and what remains unresolved as the second half of the year approaches.

The early-stage surge we anticipated has arrived ahead of schedule, driven by AI’s compression of company-building costs and the continued deepening of megafund participation at seed and Series A. First financings are on track to exceed 7,000 by year-end, a new record by more than 1,300 deals. Late-stage and venture-growth activity has been even more striking: The $274.2 billion in venture-growth capital deployed through May is already more than double the full-year 2025 total, though 86.4% of that figure traces back to four rounds from three foundation model companies. Fundraising, meanwhile, has concentrated sharply at the top, with funds over $1 billion capturing nearly 72% of capital raised YTD, while first-time managers have accounted for less than 10%. READ MORE