US M&A volume to rise just 1% this year amid tariffs

The U.S. has begun negotiations with several nations that on April 9 were granted a 90-day reprieve from high reciprocal tariffs, according to the White House. Baseline tariffs of 10% on goods from most U.S. trade partners remain in place, as do 145% duties on imports from China.

“President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements in early April have caused a material shift in the global economic and financial outlook,” the EY report said. READ MORE

Private Equity In Flux: How Tariffs, AI And Infrastructure Define A New Investment Era

The private equity landscape is experiencing transformative changes due to evolving market dynamics and the new U.S. presidential administration. Political shifts usher in a wave of both risks and opportunities that firms must adeptly navigate to sustain their competitive edge and seize emerging trends.

Investor confidence has fluctuated due to recent economic changes. Initially, there was a confident boost as investors anticipated stability and clarity from the new leadership. However, the reality of the Trump administration’s policies has introduced new uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs and regulatory changes. READ MORE

VC Math Is Still Broken And It’s Going to Stymie Innovation

What is a venture capital firm supposed to do when it can’t generate enticing enough returns for its limited partners—the pension funds, family offices and sovereign wealth funds that supply cash to VCs to invest in startups? 

Does it hand back $275 million to its LPs, as the Bay Area’s CRV did late last year, citing fewer investment opportunities for mature startups? Does it perhaps follow the examples of Seqouia and Y Combinator by laying off staff in the downside of the industry-wide boom in 2021?  READ MORE

Venture Debt Now a Key Funding Avenue, Significant Funds Attracted by Fintech

Venture debt has risen to be a key financing tool, complementing the likes of venture capital (VC), private equity (PE), and other similar asset classes by extending non-dilutive capital, allowing startups to leverage funds for diversified growth, according to a report released today by Stride Ventures in collaboration with management consultant firm Kearney, titled the 'The Global Venture Debt Report 2025'.

Venture debt deals with credit-based financing products that apply specifically to PE-VC backed early-stage startups, growth stage, or even late-stage in their trajectory. READ MORE

Venture capital spending topped $4.5B in Q1

I’ve got a dose of optimistic news for you this morning: From a venture capital perspective, the first quarter wasn’t so bad!

Preliminary data from PitchBook suggests that the quarter saw roughly $4.5 billion in VC spending, with half of that coming from Binance’s deal with Abu Dhabi’s MGX. To put that figure into context, we saw a little over $2 billion per quarter last year. READ MORE

University Endowments Under Pressure: The Ripple Effect On Venture Capital

University endowments have long been the bedrock of venture capital funding in the United States, providing reliable and substantial capital to fuel innovation and entrepreneurship. However, a convergence of regulatory, social, and economic pressures is now threatening this critical relationship, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the venture capital industry as a whole. READ MORE

MBAs are launching venture capital funds to back their classmates.

Seven members of HBS's class of 2025 have collectively raised close to $1 million for a class fund they're calling Twenty25 Ventures.

The fund is built through contributions from the graduating class and will invest solely in startups founded by peers — an investment structure that's taking off at business schools as students look to find footing in a traditionally rarefied funding ecosystem. READ MORE

Venture capital takes the Capitol

When Teresa Carlson was running Amazon’s public sector cloud business in the 2010s, she said she tried to get venture capital engaged in Washington policy conversations. After all, VC invested in the tech that would work on the cloud to serve the government.

“They didn’t really back then,” Carlson told us recently. “It was like, ‘Really? Why?’”

It’d be hard to argue that’s still the case. READ MORE

Deal Momentum Cautiously Builds At The Nexus Of AI And Real Estate

Real estate is often the largest asset people own. But when it comes to venture investment, giant bets in the space often don’t work out.

The list of failures and underperformers from the frothy investment period a few years ago includes many exceptionally well-funded real estate plays. Examples include WeWork, ibuyers such as Opendoor and Offerpad, and construction industry disruptors like Veev and Katerra. READ MORE

Is the existing VC model disappearing?

The venture capital landscape is undergoing a fundamental shift. Traditionally, startups path to secure funding was clear: a small seed round, a significant Series A, followed by large-scale growth rounds ranging from tens to hundreds of millions of dollars to accelerate growth. However, the increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into development, marketing, and operational processes is reshaping this trajectory, at a pace that raises an important question: are venture capital investments still as necessary as they once were? As an early-stage VC firm, we see hundreds of startups each year. Over the last year we’ve been noticing a growing number of companies that require significantly less funding to reach critical milestones. READ MORE

As DOGE Mauls Social Security, Profit-Hungry Private Equity Is Swooping In

The Social Security Administration (SSA), an irreplaceable lifeline for 73 million people, is only the latest venerable U.S. institution to be hit with a campaign of media falsehoods and startling internal sabotage efforts, all on the orders of Trump and the reactionary right. This has taken its most visibly outrageous form in the bureaucratic pillaging committed by Elon Musk’s self-proclaimed “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), the widely loathed advisory body with a meme-derived name as juvenile as its staffers.

But this week, a still-more ominous threat appears to be circling. Bloomberg reports that three individuals representing private equity concerns — firms in an insidious financial industry intent on harvesting anything that can rake in a profit for the ultrarich — have now shown up, alongside DOGE, to meddle in the life-sustaining work of the SSA. READ MORE

Private Equity Outlook 2025: Is a Recovery Starting to Take Shape?

Few would contest that the past few years in private equity have been the industry’s most challenging period since the global financial crisis. The good news: Dealmaking appears to have turned the corner.

Investments and exits reflected both a strong desire among general partners (GPs) to get deals done and an improved macroeconomic environment highlighted by slowly ebbing central bank rates READ MORE

Private Equity Dominates Wealth Management M&A Activity

Private equity is the “new, prominent player” in the M&A industry, as it private equity-backed deals made up 89% of all transactions during 2024, up from 39% five years earlier, according to a report from Fidelity Investments that tracked and analyzed M&A deals from 2015 through 2024.

“Private equity continues to fuel our industry,” the report stated. “Private equity continues to be attracted to the appetite for financial advice, coupled with the steady stream of fee-generated cash flow and the opportunity to capitalize on the wealth transfer.” READ MORE

Private equity's lowered expectations

Private equity entered 2025 with high hopes for a deals boom, to be driven by decreased regulation and interest rate cuts.

The big picture: That second part is increasingly uncertain, which perhaps helps explain why U.S. private equity activity is 53% lower than at this time last year.

State of play: The Fed typically weighs both inflation and labor market conditions when deciding rate changes. Right now it's in a holding pattern. READ MORE

What VC Founders Need To Know About Exit Pressure

The venture capital (VC) world is buzzing with tension, and it’s not hard to see why. Many VCs are nearing the end of their investment cycles, and that means one thing: The clock is ticking.

For startups, especially those thriving in this challenging market, this dynamic can bring a mix of opportunities and challenges. Are you ready for exit conversations? How do you manage payback periods? And most importantly, how do you navigate this environment while keeping your company’s long-term vision intact? READ MORE

Empowering Fair Pay Using Compensation Data On VC And PE Firms

For nearly three decades, J. Thelander has pioneered providing comprehensive compensation data for the private capital markets, empowering informed decision-making and promoting fair pay. When Jody Thelander, founder and CEO, discovered a private company using her company’s compensation data without paying, she invoiced them, leading to a dispute with the venture capitalist who had shared the data. She stood her ground, and the VC ultimately paid for the unauthorized use.

J. Thelander’s data-driven insights and commitment to customer service have made it an indispensable resource for investors, private companies, and service providers navigating the evolving landscape of private capital markets. READ MORE

How Female Founders Can Access Capital In A Tight VC Funding Market

The venture capital industry is consolidating rapidly, with the number of active VC firms in the U.S. dropping from 8,315 in 2021 to 6,175 in 2024. As capital becomes concentrated among fewer players, underrepresented founders — particularly women-led startups — are facing even greater challenges when it comes to securing funding.

Even though women-led startups consistently show lower failure rates and higher returns, startups with only female founders still consistently receive less than 2% of VC funding. This is largely due to implicit biases and pattern recognition. Investors often favor founders who resemble past successes — typically male-led companies. Larger firms, in particular, prioritize established networks and lower-risk investments. That makes it even harder for entrepreneurs of diverse backgrounds to break into these circles. READ MORE

The New Venture Playbook: The Data Every Founder Needs To Know

The venture capital landscape in 2024 showed signs of recovery from the 2023 downturn, but remained significantly below the peak levels of 2021, according to new data from Carta. Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, which serves 45,000 U.S. startups, reveals that total venture capital funding increased from $75 billion in 2023 to between $83 billion in 2024 – a modest improvement that suggests a gradual return to pre-pandemic startup funding levels. Despite the increase, funding remains well below 2021's peak levels, indicating a more measured funding environment. READ MORE